It was a tough day for Pierre Poilievre on Tuesday.
First, he woke up to find my column posted at the Toronto Sun asking if he still wants to be PM and criticizing some dumb moves of late. Then he got a call from Conservative MP Richard Martel informing him that Martel was taking a Senate appointment from Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Oh, and any serious reading of the polls and lay of the land in Martel’s riding would say that at this point, the Liberals would win it in a by-election.
Eventually even the Conservative push for an emergency ethics committee study on Carney’s condo bailout was shut down by the Liberals.
Tuesday could not have been his favourite day.
Why am criticizing Poilievre again…
Some Conservatives have taken to acting like TruAnon Liberals did under Justin Trudeau, no criticism of their dear leader will be tolerated. Anyone criticizing dear leader is clearly a traitor and working for the other side.
I got plenty of reactions like that for my Tuesday morning column.
Looks like that last guy really got me, I want the Conservatives to move far left and I want Doug Ford as leader.
Sadly, these people are serious and believe this.
It doesn’t matter how many times I explain that I don’t want Doug Ford as leader, doesn’t matter how many columns, radio and TV appearances that I make saying this is a bad idea, some people won‘t let go.
Which is my problem with Poilievre right now, he won’t let go of his grudge against Kory Teneycke.
Using an introduction of a B.C. politician to attack an Ontario one while in Alberta…
On Saturday at a Stampede BBQ in Calgary, here is how Poilievre started his speech.
“The future premier of British Columbia, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, way to go, fresh off a big win against Liberal lobbyists from out east,” Poilievre said.
As I said in my column in the Sun, there was no need for Poilievre to say that and continue picking at a scab that he should be trying to heal.
Read the full column for that break down, this does nothing to help Pierre with what should be his ultimate goal, becoming PM and replacing Mark Carney. Which is why I opened my column stating that I want Pierre to be our next PM but I question if he wants the job.
He’s not doing what he should be doing to win.
So no, I don’t want Doug Ford to take over as CPC leader, I don’t want Poilievre out of that job, I simply want him to focus and do what he needs to do to succeed and continuing to pick stupid fights won’t help with that.
As for the whole rift between Poilievre and Ford/Teneycke, I laid out what I know back in April. It’s about 3-4,000 words in detail about the history behind where we are today.
Suffice to say, the rift didn’t start with Teneycke’s comments in the last election.
I know all the people involved in this story, and I’d rather see them get along, but that isn’t happening. So, I told the story with what I know in a fair and balanced way to pull back the curtain for you.
It was originally behind a paywall, but isn’t anymore.
Ford asked again if he’s trying to unseat Poilievre…
Doug Ford was at the Stampede for a good announcement about Ontario unveiling a new proposed route for a West to East pipeline and that Ontario will pay for the feasibility study. It was a follow-up to an announcement to explore the pipeline last year.
At the question and answer portion of the news conference, Ford was asked if he was in Calgary to shore up support to replace Poilievre.
I’ve been writing and commenting on Doug Ford being the bogeyman for the federal Conservatives since late 2019 after Andrew Scheer lost the election to Justin Trudeau.
Did Doug Ford dream of being federal leader and PM at some point?
Probably.
Is that what he wants now?
Absolutely not.
He won his third majority government last year. If an election were held today, he’d win a fourth majority government.
The polling is clear.
Could that change?
Absolutely.
Every politician has a shelf life and eventually as Warren Kinsella likes to say, voters just get sick of your face. Voters will turn on Ford one day, and it might be before the next election, but it isn’t today.
So, he is going to stay as premier of the biggest province in the country.
There’s also the fact that he doesn’t speak French, he wouldn’t get many votes West of Thunder Bay and the issues that Ford cares about are not federal issues. I can’t see him loving the idea of flying to Turkey for a NATO summit.
It would also be difficult for Ford to go from saying Carney is great to work with to challenging him in the House of Commons. Oh, and if there is one thing Ford really doesn’t want, it’s giving up power as the leader of Ontario to be the opposition leader for the next three years.
And unless he could move the House of Commons to Etobicoke, I don’t see him doing this.
There is a paranoia about Ford inside the federal party though and rather decide to work with him, they continue to fight him.
Do you know that if Poilievre had called and tried to have any kind of relationship with Ford after he won the leadership in 2022 that Ford would have tried to help him.
Poilievre didn’t do that.
Again, I laid out the whole history in some depth here and you can read it, without the paywall and decide for yourself.
Did you know the last Ontario Premier to leave Queen’s Park to run as the federal leader was George Drew? He was Premier of Ontario from 1943 until 1948 before going on to win the federal leadership and representing the federal riding of Carleton.
That’s the same riding Poilievre represented until last April’s election.
Martel joining the Senate and what it means…
Let’s make one thing clear, Richard Martel, the Conservative MP for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord did not cross the floor when he accepted a Senate appointment from Mark Carney. Martel was introduced as an independent Senator with his announcement which is how all Senators now enter the Chamber after Trudeau’s ridiculous rule changes in 2015/16.
There is a good chance that he will sit as a Conservative Senator and his friend, Conservative Senate Leader Leo Housakos has made online overtures already. Housakos was out with congratulations quickly, it took Pierre Poilievre a bit longer to find the keyboard on his phone and congratulate him.
I’m sure Poilievre didn’t love that Martel was leaving the CPC caucus, but when the announcement is made around 9am and you wait until after 4pm to make any public statement and then it is conditional, that looks bad on you.
Martel’s seat was a three-way race in the last election and he won with 34% of the vote. He’s a popular guy in his riding and his name recognition helped him push back on the Bloc Quebecois and Liberal challengers.
It’s not a safe Conservative seat though and has been held by the Liberals, NDP and Bloc.
In the coming by-election I think it will flip red. The Liberals are polling high in Quebec right now, Carney’s personal popularity is high and he has a big gift to give them soon.
In a riding that hosts CFB Bagotville, home to 3 Wing of the Royal Canadian Air Force, Carney will soon announce our fighter jet purchase decision. Regardless of what the decision is, it will mean jobs in the riding and that will help seal the deal.
Can Poilievre survive this…
Poilievre has lost five Conservative MPs since the last election, I’ve never seen that in my 25 years covering federal politics. If you told me a year ago that Poilievre would lose five MPs and still survive as leader, I would have thought you were crazy.
I sat with Andrew Scheer in his office on Parliament Hill having a beer with him in late 2019, just before he announced that he would resign as leader. I heard him talk about his personal pain and his professional issues as leader.
In early 2022, I had a phone call with Erin O’Toole shortly before he resigned as leader after the caucus turned on him following the 2021 election and his handling of the Freedom Convoy - I think he lost votes on both sides of that issue.
Neither of those leaders lost five MPs in the 15 months following the elections they lost but they were still shown the door.
So, can Poilievre survive this?
The good news for him is that nobody is organizing against him.
That could change, O’Toole looked safe in his job post election, he wasn’t looking to leave the way Scheer was. Then a group of people did start organizing against O’Toole to make room for Pierre Poilievre.
The problem for anyone organizing against Poilievre the way he did against O’Toole is that Poilievre owns the base of the party. They are fiercely loyal to him and a challenger could cause a schism.
The saying goes that a week is a lifetime in politics.
Stay tuned.
