Is Doug Ford looking to be federal Conservative leader? Maybe...

If you've watched Doug Ford's political career, you know not to dismiss him or count him out.

Is Douglas Robert Ford, Premier of Ontario, eyeing a run to become leader of the federal Conservative Party? A new profile piece on Ford in Toronto Life certainly has some tongues wagging simply because Ford didn’t say no when asked.

That saw Juno News write a piece on the idea; it sparked online conversations on social media.

I know people who love the idea and people who hate the idea and to be perfectly honest, which camp Doug Ford is in may depend on the day and his mood. Ambitious politicians are always looking for the next hill to climb and Ford would of course consider the idea, that doesn’t mean he’ll do it.

For a start, the job isn’t open – at the moment.

Pierre Poilievre is facing his by-election in Alberta and then a leadership review in January as mandated by the party constitution. It’s one that he should pass easily, the party base still loves Pierre, and at this point, there isn’t a clear organized movement to oust him.

Though the movements to oust Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole were’s highly visible at first either.

Politics is a tricky business, and things can change quickly - “Events dear boy! Events!”

But what if…

There are many scenarios that could play out. Poilievre is said to be down, which is understandable after the loss, but I don’t see him walking away from the party leadership.

A group could organize and try to force him out through the leadership review between now and January as well. What seems unlikely now, could seem obvious come February.

There is another scenario where Poilievre passes the leadership review, Mark Carney calls an early election in the spring of next year saying that talks on a new trade deal with Donald Trump are close and he needs a mandate from Canadians.

As long as Carney hasn’t stepped on any rakes between now and then, he’d likely win that kind of an election.

I’m getting ahead of myself with all these scenarios, if, if, if, if. I’m reminded of the great Quebec saying, “If my grandmother had wheels, she’d be a bus.”

Still, politicos love to play these games, talk about scenarios and that is why people are still talking about Doug Ford possibly running to be the federal Conservative leader.

Don’t discount Ford…

I’d never count it out and I would never count Doug Ford out.

When he announced he was running to be leader of the Ontario PC Party in early 2018 after Patrick Brown resigned, all the smart people laughed and said he would never be leader. I looked at Ford and said if he runs for leader, he will likely win and will become Premier of Ontario.

He's won the province three times with increasing margins.

Still, would Ford want to run?

The temptation would always be there, if the job were open, but let’s be clear, the idea of Ford being the opposition leader in Ottawa for three years or more would drive him nuts. Ford isn’t even really driven by the issues the federal government is responsible for, but he is interested in getting things done.

There are many impediments to him getting the top job in Ottawa.

If he became federal leader, could he win enough seats in Quebec with French that is worse than mine? The Conservatives haven’t had a leader do well in Quebec with bad French since John Diefenbaker took 50 of the province’s 75 seats in 1958!

I have Francophone friends who think he could pull it off.

Of course, in that Toronto Life profile, an insider did talk about the strategy that would be used if Ford was federal Conservative leader.

According to one insider, Ford is serious about a run and believes he can win without Quebec if he can connect in Alberta.

Can he connect in Alberta?

My joke with friends is that Ford would be lucky to get 20 votes west of the Ontario-Manitoba border. It’s not that bad, but trust me, as I write this from Saskatoon, there is anger aimed at him over his comments, and those of his campaign manager Kory Teneycke, during the federal election.

As much as I disagreed with the assessment of my long-time friend Teneycke, he isn’t the reason that Poilievre and the Conservatives lost the election. They were never polling well enough in Ontario to win the number of seats they needed to take power.

In the weeks leading up to the election, my calculation was that the Conservatives needed at least 75 seats in Ontario, they took 52. The calculation for needing 75 in Ontario to win a majority – the only win that would matter for the Conservatives – was dependent on them performing better in Atlantic Canada than they did.

Ford and Teneycke didn’t help Poilievre, but they didn’t cost him the election either.

Cole Hogan, a smart guy on the Conservative side federally, who has also worked provincially with Ford and with Jason Kenney in Alberta sees a path for Ford. He posted to X that the base of the Conservative Party has changed and may not be as ideologically focused, especially on purity tests.

The Conservative base is different than it was under Harper, Scheer, O’Toole. I’m not saying they’d be all in for Doug but people said Rob would never be mayor—they said Doug would never be premier—Doug as leader is not out of the realm of possibility.

Still, Ford would face an uphill battle trying to win over true-blue Poilievre fans in a leadership race. There is a lot of venom spewed at Ford every time that I post about him, but as I’ve long said, Twitter is not real life, I heard the same things about Ford during the last Ontario election, and he won his third majority.

Being best buds with Mark…

One final point on why it would be tough for Ford to run federally, he’s praised Mark Carney way too much.

It’s his style, it’s his schtick. If you are standing next to Doug Ford, you are going to get a compliment about something, the man loves to try and make people feel better about themselves.

Could he turn around and criticize Carney, the man he’s praised so well? Absolutely, especially after the Digital Services Tax debacle.

If Carney can’t get a trade deal with Trump to remove, or at least lower the tariffs, Ford could step in to say he’s the man who could get it done. Considering he’s the only Premier that I’ve ever seen summoned to Washington after threatening to cut of electricity to several American states, people might believe it.

It’s summer folks, people like to speculate, they like to gossip.

These are my two cents, or roughly 1,000 words on the matter, I hope you liked it.