Angus Reid came out with their new poll the other day showing a 14 point lead, now Leger has their’s at a 16 point lead. Tomorrow Abacus will release their numbers and CEO David Coletto has already indicated the Liberals will lead by at least 16.
I know some of you don’t like polls, I constantly hear they are fake. The three I just quoted are all reputable and accurate pollsters.
The numbers aren’t good for Poilievre and the Conservatives right now but they are great for Carney and the Liberals.
Put it all down to Donald Trump.
Mark Carney wasn’t stupid when he came out on August 22 and said Canada was at war with the United States.
Putting that framing on the situation allowed Carney to escape any scrutiny of the fact that he failed to accomplish the thing he promised, the thing he was elected to do - get a deal with Trump.
I write about whether this surge in support for Carney over fighting with Trump makes it harder for him to sell a deal. Not get a deal, but when he gets one, to actually sell it.
Give the column a read and share on social media if you can.
About those numbers…
A 16 point gap isn’t pretty for anyone and the fact that it is all due to Trump is cold comfort for Conservative MPs and their supporters.
On the next episode of the Full Comment Podcast, out Monday morning, I talk about this dilemma with Ian Brodie and Ginny Roth.
Ian is Stephen Harper’s first chief of staff and a professor of political science at the University of Calgary. Ginny is a consultant here in Toronto and a strong backer of Poilievre, even working on his leadership campaign.
What are Conservatives to do if they want to turn things around?
Of particular concern, as you can see in this chart, voters over 55 are backing Carney at a rate of 60%. This is traditionally the most reliable voting bloc for the Conservative Party.
Carney and Trump are talking…
I was watching CBC the other day, don’t ask me why.
Well, the truth is if the TV is on when I’m at my desk then I’m cycling through CBC, CTV, CNN and Fox just looking to see what is happening and what is being said.
Anyway, as it hit CBC, I was treated to listening to the hosts talk about the tense conversations that Dominic LeBlanc has been having with Jamieson Greer. They made it sound like the two men have been exchanging nasty comments.
I’ve heard nothing to that effect. In fact I’ve heard the opposite.
As I’ve been saying since the talks fell apart, there was no animosity in the room at the end of the day on August 21. No name calling, no yelling, no banging on the table.
So it shouldn’t be shocking that Carney is talking with Trump.
The PM let that slip on Thursday as he was speaking with reporters. He downplayed that it was about trade while also saying he is still open to a mutually beneficial deal.
In an interview with NBC News, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the two men have spoken twice over the past week.
Then in Ireland on Saturday morning, Trump was asked about CUSMA and said expect a deal soon.
You noticed he referenced that there would be a deal soon because we are treating American farmers better.
Another thing that I’ve reported on that others have not picked up on is that Carney had agreed give the Americans the same deal as the Europeans on dairy. It doesn’t mean an increase in how much American dairy we allow in, it’s that under this change we won’t be able to block American imports like we’ve been doing.
Mostly this will happen because Canadian retailers will be able to access quota to order things like American cheese just like they can access and order European cheese.
Surprised this hasn’t been an issue in the Quebec election yet.
Next week, I’ve arranged for an interview with a smart, young, Conservative in Quebec to explain what is happening in their provincial election. The video should be ready early in the week.
I’ve also got a BC politics veteran lined up to explain what is happening with the BC Conservatives.
Polls: I believe number one that when they say “Canadians” is an outright misconception or lie, whatever ya want. It should always read “Canadians, of the 1000 polled” ! Number two is that poll was taken in what targeted zone of the province or city. Eg; Northern Ontario, Sudbury, Regina or wherever. Why do they have to deliberately try to fleece the public? There should be a law against it period. We don’t need a poll, especially when the pollsters may have been paid off, have a relative in the game, have investment In the outcome in some manner as in another cultural area etc. you get the point here. Abolish polls completely. They are entirely misleading, intentionally. When they start off with a lie”Canadians” yu should know right away something is wrong. OR poll every 41 million of us then say Canadians polled.
These polling numbers don't surprise me at all given that TDS is even more rampant in Canada - including among *many* conservatives (particularly the older ones, it seems). However, what is currently the Carney & Co.'s greatest (really only) strength has a shelf life. I've noticed over the past year some fluctuation in the polls. Every time Trump gives Carney an opportunity to go elbows-up his poll numbers jump. But when Trump isn't front and centre, the numbers start to dip. Now, that hasn't happened for a long enough stretch of time yet to see real downward movement but it indicates that the Libs are pretty dependent on the "Trump factor" to maintain support. That literally cannot last forever. And Carney may have painted himself into a corner. He's whipped up anti-Americanism to such a fever-pitch that, yes, he may have a tricky time selling them on one. But if he never gets one and the economy starts taking real hits that even his supporters feel then they may start to turn on him for that. Canadians have recently shown just how feckless, shallow and immature they really are. Polling shows the majority supports Carney walking away from a deal (despite none of us having seen what it actually was) but that they're unwilling to be financially/economically impacted by it (taking even a $500/yr hit for it is too much for a similar majority). The populace at this time isn't just emotional, the bulk of them are currently outright unhinged.