Mark Carney went to Fort McMurray to announce a pipeline. Sort of.
The federal government has declared a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast a project of national interest, the first project the Major Projects Office has put on its list. Premier Danielle Smith was clearly pleased, using her time at the podium to list a string of wins she has secured from Ottawa.
But what exactly was announced?
On this week’s Full Comment, I’m joined by Calgary Herald columnist Chris Varcoe and Edmonton Sun columnist Lorne Gunter to sort out what this announcement is and what it isn’t.
Let’s just say we are all a little skeptical, because there are so many hurdles left to clear before there ever is a pipeline.
Varcoe explains why a fast-tracked conditions document, due by September 2027, is not the same thing as an approval, and why the economics still have to work before any oil flows. Gunter asks why, 18 months after Carney promised to “think big, act bigger,” there still isn’t a shovel in the ground.
Then there is the price tag.
The pipeline is estimated at $35 billion to $44 billion, there are no private investors yet, and taxpayers appear to be on the hook. Add in the Pathways carbon capture project and the proposed Northern Shield pipeline to Ontario, and the public bill could climb even higher.
Finally, are there politics at play here? Was the announcement timed to sway Alberta’s Oct. 19 referendum, and will it change any votes?
Listen now wherever you get your podcasts including Apple and Spotify or below on YouTube.
From the official show notes.
It’s another announcement from Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. And it’s about the same West Coast pipeline they’ve announced before. This time it’s been designated a project of “national interest.” Still undetermined is whether it’s of interest to investors and shippers. Joining Brian are Chris Varcoe, Postmedia’s western business columnist, and Lorne Gunter, political columnist. They discuss the likelihood of this pipeline ever happening, the battles yet to fight, the eye-watering costs, and the dismaying timeline before it gets done. They discuss Smith’s feats in pushing the Liberals to overturn the last prime minister’s anti-oil dogmas. But given Carney’s costly carbon-capture conditions and other roadblocks, simply declaring “national interest” won’t be enough to make Alberta’s oilpatch great again. (Recorded October 2, 2026)
Why should we believe that this is anything other than political positioning re the Referendum?
Carney's Liberal voter base does not care about pipelines because most of their income is derived from the government (that is, other taxpayers). They can afford to laugh at those who will lose if a pipeline does not go through.
Of course, support for secession will grow but then Ottawa is trying to institute speech controls too. Those who never think differently from government will have no problem with that.
Anyone remember the days when pipelines cost the taxpayers zero dollars?