Brad Bradford is challenging Olivia Chow in recent polls...

Race to be next mayor of Toronto heating up ahead of official start date.

Toronto is a messed-up and broken city desperately in need of new leadership.

I know many of you reading this in other parts of the country have no love for this city. I get it, I was born and raised in Hamilton, spent about 20 years in Ottawa, have travelled across the country and if there is one thing that unites Canadians it is hating Toronto.

But this city matters, it is the economic engine of Canada and when it struggles, the country struggles.

That’s why I believe we need new leadership at Toronto City Hall, not just a new mayor but as slate of new councillors and once they are in place new bureaucrats at the top.

Thankfully we are seeing some signs that voters, at least in some parts of the city are waking up to the fact that things aren’t working as they should here. If we voted based on job performance for things like basic city services then Mayor Olivia Chow would definitely be shown the door later this year.

Brad Bradford is the only declared candidate at this point having announced his plan to take on Chow last October. He’s been in campaign mode ever since hitting up community events, delivering his stump speech and trying to raise his profile.

A pair of new polls would show it’s working.

On Friday, Liaison Strategies released a poll showing Chow with 46% support citywide and Bradford at 35%, the poll also included Anthony Furey - who doesn’t appear to be running - at 11% and 8% said they would vote for someone else.

In suburban Etobicoke, Bradford took 43% voter support to Chow’s 32%. Chow dominates downtown with 49% of the vote to Bradford’s 35%, right now Chow is winning in North York and Scarborough which needs to change for Bradford to win.

In the 2023 Mayoral byelection that saw Chow replace John Tory after his resignation, Chow won with just 37% of the vote in a crowded race. She took the downtown wards, the Beaches and Scarborough but lost in Etobicoke and North York.

For Bradford to win, he’s got to dominate in all the suburban areas, not just Etobicoke.

“Mayor Chow continues to dominate in the downtown core and among older residents, but Brad Bradford has effectively tied her among voters aged 18-34 and holds a lead in Etobicoke,” Liaison Principal David Valentin told my Toronto Sun colleague Bryan Passifiume.

In another poll that shows just a head to head race between Chow and Bradford, no Anthony Furey in the mix, the race appears tighter.

Jodi Shanoff at JS Insights shows Chow in the lead with 37%, Bradford at 36% and 27% undecided. Among those who say they will definitely vote in the next election, 41% say they will back Chow and 39% say they would support Bradford with 20% undecided.

From Shanoff’s note.

The statistical tie between candidates persists among those residents who report they will definitely vote in the next municipal election (71% of all survey respondents). In this case, Chow obtains 41% of decided vote, while Bradford sees 39% (undecided drops to 20%).

Once again, women lean towards Chow’s candidacy (43%), while a plurality of men prefer Bradford (43%). Given the close tie between candidates, there are currently few other demographic differences between voting pools.

Both polls show that support for Bradford has increased since John Tory announced that he would not run in October’s election.

Given that Bradford isn’t as well known as Chow and he’s still in striking distance that means he has room to grow between now and October. Chow, having spent the last three years as mayor, having spent years at city council before that and then serving as a Toronto MP, is a much more well known commodity and while she retains popularity, her negatives are also high.

The Liaison poll was conducted via phone between April 12 and 13th, 2026 using IVR (Interactive Voice Recording) and reached 1,000 people. It’s margin of error is considered +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The JS Insights poll was conducted via an online panel between April 3-7, 2026 and reached 517 Toronto residents based on postal code data. Online polls don’t have margins of error but an equivalent telephone poll would be consider to be accurate within +/- 4.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

twenty.