You hear me repeat myself a lot when it comes to political maxims, and here’s one worth repeating again: voters are fickle, polls can change, campaigns matter. I used to say that to Conservatives and Liberals alike. Right now it’s Conservatives who need to hear it, because they’ve been trailing for most of this year and a lot of you are feeling down about it.
Remember January 2025. Conservatives had a massive lead, and then it evaporated — Mark Carney won the most seats, manufactured himself a majority, and everyone assumed the story was over. It wasn’t over then, and this isn’t over now. Because right now, that Liberal lead is shrinking.
Angus Reid drops the Liberals to a four point lead…
The headline on this one is that voters are supposedly switching to the Liberals over climate change. I don’t buy it — climate change is a vote-mover when everything else is going great, and things are not going great right now. But look past the headline at the numbers: Liberals 40%, Conservatives 36%. Back in January/February, when this shift started, Angus Reid had it at Liberals 45, Conservatives 32. That’s a real move.
Abacus Data has a 6 point lead for the Liberals…
Abacus has generally had these two parties closer together, and now it’s Liberals 43%, Conservatives 37%, NDP at 9%. Worth remembering: in the last election the federal Conservatives pulled about 40-41% of the vote in Ontario and still lost, because the NDP collapsed to 4.9% in the province and that vote bled to the Liberals. If even some of that NDP vote drifts back, the math changes.
338Canada, the average…
338 Canada is a polling aggregator and their polling average has it at a 9-point Liberal lead, 44 to 35. That’s wider than the other two, partly because they fold in Nanos and Liaison, two firms I don’t lean on much. Still — the direction is the same everywhere you look.
Why? I think the Gordie Howe Bridge deal — where Carney got rolled by Trump and then lied about it — is starting to cost him. There are by-elections coming that should worry Liberals more than they let on: they’re running the former head of the Dairy Farmers Association in Chicoutimi because the milk cartel can apparently win them a seat the Conservatives currently hold. Beaches–East York is the one to watch — they got spooked enough about an NDP challenge that they killed the Billy Bishop Airport expansion, a real infrastructure project, to try to save one Toronto riding.
Add it up: Carney is not who he was advertised to be. Trump “TACOs” but Carney caves. Eventually voters notice the gap between the pitch and the performance.
Regional and age breakdown (Abacus)
Regionally, Abacus shows the Conservatives are competitive in BC (37-43), still dominate Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, sit at 39% in Ontario — good, not good enough — and are clawing back a little in Atlantic Canada. The number that matters most: voters under 60 are fine, but with voters over 60 it’s Conservatives 32%, Liberals 52%. Those are the older voters, especially older men, who flipped to Carney last time. They haven’t come back yet.
My advice to Poilievre: lay low in August, come back after Labour Day, hammer affordability, pick away at Carney’s record and keep visible daylight between yourself and Donald Trump, who will never be popular here, especially with the swing voters you need.
Because here’s the other thing to remember about politics: it’s addition, not subtraction. You don’t win by pushing people out the door and hoping nobody notices. You win by finding the people who left and giving them a reason to come back, while bringing in new ones too. That’s Poilievre’s job for the next six months.
Talk soon. I’m on your side.
