There are six byelections that need to be called now, and most of the discussion is about Brantford-Brant South. I’ll have more to say about that and the drama around replacing Larry Brock, but here are the ridings up for grabs whenever Prime Minister Mark Carney calls the byelections, which could come as early as this week.
Ontario
Brantford-Brant South – formerly Conservative
Scarborough North – formerly Liberal
Quebec
Laurier—Sainte-Marie – formerly Liberal
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie – formerly NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton – formerly Bloc
Saskatchewan
Yorkton-Melville – formerly Conservative
Could the Liberals win all six…
If the Liberals win all six, I think everyone in the country would be shocked and we could officially declare that Canada was moving to become a one-party state.
The chances of them winning all six are slim to none, primarily because of Yorkton-Melville in Saskatchewan, where Cathy Wagantall took 77.5% of the vote last time.
From 1968 through 1993, the area was represented by New Democrat Lorne Nystrom. From 1993 through to now, it has been represented by Reform, the Canadian Alliance and now the Conservatives.
This riding ain’t flipping.
Laurier—Sainte-Marie was Steven Guilbeault’s riding, though the NDP held it before him. I think this one stays Liberal.
I also think the Liberals could pick up Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton in the Eastern Townships, an area known for backing Liberals from time to time, and Carney is riding high.
If Carney mania keeps rolling, they could even take Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie in the middle of Montreal. The Liberals finished a strong second there last time.
Which brings us to the two Ontario seats.
The Liberals are almost certain to take Scarborough North, which was formerly held by Shaun Chen before his weird resignation over health concerns and subsequent registration to run for Toronto city council.
But the one everyone is really focused on is Brantford-Brant South.
Do or die for the Conservatives…
The Conservatives have held this riding since 2008. Before that, it saw decades of Liberal and NDP representation.
One longtime Conservative in the riding told me it’s not naturally a Conservative riding, it’s one they have to work hard to hold.
Phil McColeman flipped the riding in 2008 and held it until he retired ahead of the 2021 campaign. Larry Brock represented the Conservatives from 2021 until his resignation took effect last Friday.
The Liberals think they can win this one and will be throwing everything they have at taking another Ontario seat from the Conservatives and solidifying their majority.
If the Conservatives lose what many consider a safe seat, it won’t be good for Poilievre’s leadership.
As I’ve explained before, if safe blue seats start turning red, then existing Conservative MPs might start getting nervous and become more concerned about keeping their own jobs than protecting the leader’s.
It’s all about the Reform Act, which Conservative MPs voted to endorse once again after the last election.
Which brings us to the nomination on Sunday.
As I was writing in the Toronto Sun today, the rally in Brantford did not go as some would have wanted. Phil McColeman was so upset that the party decided to appoint Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis that he walked out, paused and said, “No, no, no” on his way out the door.
The entire point of my column, which I hope you read, is that winning Brantford becomes much harder when the local party is split. McColeman and Brock had both endorsed someone else. So had members of the riding association board.
People discount local riding associations, but these are the people who knock on doors, identify supporters, hammer in signs and get out the vote.
If the local organization is divided, winning becomes harder.
If this truly were a safe seat and not one that was in play, this wouldn’t matter. But it is in play, which is why any divide is too much.
All things federal in one Northern Perspective…
Always a pleasure to speak with Ryan Davies about politics.
It was a shame to see Brock leave, he was one of the few politicians in Canada with a head on his shoulders. Called it as he seen it and didn’t hold back when he did.
I will never understand parties who over-ride riding association nominations. All politics is local, a point national executives and party leaders would do well to remember.