Modi, Putin and Xi engage in an interesting diplomatic dance...

As Trump applies pressure to India on Russia, Modi tries to show he has options.

China, India and Russia walk into a bar…

It would be funny if it weren’t also worrisome. The three countries didn’t walk into a bar this week but they did walk into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting and their leaders were photographed smiling and chatting.

Photo from Modi’s X account showing all three leaders chatting. He also posted several photos embracing Xi and Putin to send a message.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin getting together to cooperate is bad for the West.

That’s the whole point of the photo though isn’t it, and the many social media posts that Modi uploaded. He wants to sow uncertainty on where India stands with China and Russia which works well for Modi and is bad news for Donald Trump.

Lest any Canadians start cheering, India turning towards Russia and China is bad news for Canada as well.

Modi though clearly wants to show that he has options as Donald Trump tries to throw his weight around including by placing extra sanctions on India for buying Russian oil. Yes, as part of his attempt to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, Trump added extra sanctions on India for buying and reselling Russian oil.

You might say that this photo of the three leaders together shows it hasn’t worked, that things will continue, but we can’t be so sure.

Modi participated in the meetings but will not join the military parade that China is hosting on Wednesday. That shows that while Modi is willing to take a dance, he’s not ready to start dating just yet.

That didn’t stop Donald Trump from blasting India in a post on Truth Social on Monday.

Of note is that Trump points out that “India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the U.S.”

It has always been thus. Or at least since India achieved independence from Britain in 1947 as the Cold War was ramping up. India should be turning towards the West but the relationship is fraught due to history.

In the years after independence and for much of the Cold War era, New Delhi was closer to Moscow than Washington. Those ties have remained even as India has moved closer to the West in some ways.

Now, Moscow and Beijing are happy to rekindle old flames as Western countries – and not just Trump’s America – leave India feeling unwelcome.

They have the United States trying to change the trading relationship, and not without good reason given the uneven trade and high tariffs charged by India. They also have countries like Canada seemingly at war with them, especially when Trudeau was PM and was chasing Khalistani votes by attacking Modi at every turn.

In some ways, it is completely understandable that India would turn towards China and Russia.

Canada, the United States, Britain and the rest of the Western countries should be working hard to court India, have her turn towards the Western orbit. We weren’t doing that before Trump - see Trudeau, Justin - and we aren’t doing that during Trump.

Diplomacy is an ongoing dance and trying to split up Putin and Xi has been a key goal of the Trump administration. Those who sneer at Trump’s attempts to speak to some leaders, to reach out to Putin and end the war in Ukraine are not looking at the bigger picture.

If China, India and Russia form a pact on economic and military matters, if Russia and China continue to support destabilizing elements like Iran and North Korea, then issues like ending the war in Ukraine won’t matter. The world will be far more unstable than just the battle between Kyiv and Moscow if these alliances take shape and take their presumed and natural course.

The photo of the three of them is a bit like a diplomatic version of Dicken’s Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come. It’s not what will happen, but it is a glimpse of what could happen if we don’t change course.

Let’s hope that Western leaders and India’s Modi change course in the coming months and years.