Is Mark Carney's majority in trouble already...

Plus, what was he saying in Armenia?

Mark Carney’s Liberal team currently has 174 seats in the House of Commons. It takes 172 seats out of the 343 seats we have across the country to secure a majority.

Between floor crossers and by-elections, Carney was able to manufacture his majority but it isn’t an overly stable one and could fall apart.

The Speaker of the House is Francis Scarpaleggia, a Liberal MP from Montreal. Unless it is break a tie, the Speaker doesn’t vote, meaning Carney really has 173 votes he can count on.

Unless something unforeseen happens.

With MPs now able to vote on their laptop or phones, the days of people missing votes due to illness or a hospital stay are over. Travel is another matter because while MPs are able to vote remotely, they do need to be physically present in Canada to do so.

These are the types of things that keep party whips up at night.

We’ll enter another wrinkle, it looks like Carney is about to lose two Liberal MPs and both seats could be up for grabs.

We’ve heard that Jonathan Wilkinson has accepted the position of Canada’s Ambassador to the European Union. He will wrap up his office in the coming weeks and resign his seat in North Vancouver—Capilano.

Wilkinson has held the seat since 2015 but for decades prior to that it was a swing seat that went to a conservative leaning party more often than not. That means whenever this goes to a by-election, the Liberals winning this seat isn’t a sure thing.

In Toronto, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, the Liberal MP for Beaches East York wants to resign and run to be leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. He’s seeking the Ontario Liberal nomination in the neighbouring riding of Scarborough Southwest, recently vacated when Dolly Begum jumped from the provincial NDP to Carney’s Liberals and became an MP in the recent by-elections.

It’s a bit of musical chairs and to make it more complicated Erskine-Smith may not win the nomination which will leave him a federal Liberal.

If he gets the nomination though and leaves, there is a good chance this seat could flip NDP. Beaches East York is a pretty left leaning area of Toronto, think urban progressives more than old-school union Dippers.

If Avi Lewis, the newly minted federal NDP leader were to run there, he could win handily. I think that a New Democrat candidate who isn’t Lewis could run and win.

That’s two seats at risk.

If they lose both, that would take the Liberals down to 172 seats.

Could they pick it up by taking Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, the Montreal riding just vacated by NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice?

Not a chance.

That seat will likely go to the Bloc Quebecois who had it for years before the NDP had their Orange Wave across Quebec in the 2011 election.

It’s unlikely that the Liberals will lose both seats, but it could happen.

What was Mark Carney going on about in Armenia…

Carney was in Europe again on Monday and his government was announcing a $1 billion bailout for firms hurt by tariffs.

As I explain in my column in the Toronto Sun, these are both signs that he’s not getting, or even looking for a deal to get rid of tariffs.

A few other things…

This morning I tried something new that I might keep going. A quick video chat looking at some top stories, some headlines, a quick commentary and it’s out.

I’m posting it to the site here and social media but not sending it out via the newsletter.

Also this morning, I posted the latest episode of the Full Comment Podcast here, it’s a good discussion with Ian Lee and Carlo Dade about the fiscal update and Carney’s lacklustre performance on the economy.