Brian Lilley

Brian Lilley

Is Mark Carney calling an early election...

I think it looks that way, but here are the many issues he and his team are considering.

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Brian Lilley
Feb 03, 2026
∙ Paid

Is Mark Carney about to push Canada into an early election?

Maybe.

An early election was the talk of the Conservative convention in Calgary. I spoke about that possibility with MPs, with Steve Outhouse the new Conservative campaign manager and others.

You can listen to the podcast of those discussions here. It also formed the basis of my column on Poilievre’s success in the leadership review, time to get ready for the looming snap election.

And of course it’s not just Postmedia folks looking at Carney’s actions and thinking it looks like he’s priming for an election. It was Mackenzie Gray from Global who asked Carney about the fact that he looks like is setting up for an election.

Here is there full exchange lasting several minutes.

It took three different questions and a lot of words to eventually get Carney to say in a rather non-convincing way that he wasn’t going into an early election.

So is this proof?

Absolutely not, but over the next little bit I’m going to peel back the curtain and explain how minority governments can set up their own demise, often don’t and what to look for. I started covering federal politics full-time in March 2005 when Paul Martin was PM and the smart set in Ottawa said that Stephen Harper would never be PM.

Since then, I’ve covered a Martin minority, two Harper minority governments, two Trudeau minorities and to a lesser degree a few provincial minorities. I’ve also covered several governments, majority and minority who said they weren’t going to go to an early election and then did.

So, let’s peel back the curtain…

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