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Canada works best when rules make sense, but a growing provincial patchwork creates needless confusion. Today, depending on their postal code, adult Canadians face conflicting regulations and uneven access to legal smoke-free alternatives. The goal isn’t more rules — it’s better rules. Federal and provincial leaders must work together to establish one clear, consistent national framework that protects those underage, strengthens enforcement, and supports informed adult choice.
A split house is my bet for the American midterms…
It’s midterm day in the United States, and all political eyes are looking at what this will mean for the balance of power in Washington.
I’m not going to try and wiggle out of making a prediction. I’ve been saying the same thing for months. That said, before I give you my prediction, there are scenarios where either side could sweep both houses.
It’s more likely that the Democrats sweep the House and Senate than the Republicans taking both houses. That said, the Republicans doing it is not out of the question. It’s just unlikely.
For months now, I’ve said that I think the Democrats are likely to take the House and the Republicans are likely to hold onto the Senate. Nothing that I’ve seen in the last while has moved me from that position.
It’s normal that the president’s party loses some support. It’s also been documented that in midterms since 2002, Republican support in polling has been off by about 2.6 points.
That means some races that seem close now, especially at the Senate level, are likely to tip towards the Republicans. There is no doubt that the Democrats will score some big wins and will knock off some big names, but it’s likely that the Republicans hold the upper house.
I think after the shenanigans uncovered by the New York Times, where the Democrats spent a lot of time and effort recruiting an “independent” candidate named Dan Sullivan, the same name as the Republican incumbent, Sullivan is likely to win. Voters don’t like dirty tricks like this and are unlikely to reward Mary Peltola.
We could also see Republican pickups in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
To take the Senate, the Democrats need to hold every seat they currently have and take four from the GOP. It could happen, but it is a tall order.
Polls start closing at 6 p.m. ET but don’t fully close until midnight, meaning it will be the wee hours, or tomorrow, before we know the full lay of the land.
Meanwhile in Canada...
On Sunday, Mark Carney called six byelections, and I might be alone in saying that the Liberals have a shot at all six of them.
There are three ridings up for grabs in Quebec, two in Ontario and one in Saskatchewan. Right now, the Liberals hold two of them, the Conservatives hold two of them, and the Bloc and NDP each hold one.
Seems crazy to say that the Liberals could win all six, especially that Saskatchewan one, but either I’m crazy or the Canadian electorate is.
I don’t think Mark Carney has delivered on his promises from the last election, and I’m not a supporter of his government, but I know how to read the national mood. Poll after poll shows Carney and his Liberal Party pulling away, with nearly 50% support nationally.
Disbelieve polls if you want, but I also know all the areas where these byelections are being held.
The Liberals could easily sweep all three in Quebec, and they currently hold Scarborough North. In Brantford, there is a schism, with former Conservative MP Phil McColeman backing independent candidate Dave Carrol, who was passed over by party brass in favour of former Brantford mayor Kevin Davis.
This was going to be a hard riding for the Conservatives to hold regardless. Now we’ve got a fly in the ointment, and with Davis already having raised more than $35,000 for the campaign, he’s becoming a serious challenger.
Yorkton-Melville hasn’t voted Liberal in decades, but Carney recruited current Yorkton Mayor Aaron Kienle, who won his last election in 2024 with 62% of the vote.
I’m not saying the Liberals will win Yorkton-Melville, but the fact that it’s an issue should be concerning.
We Need to Say No to Boosting Canada’s Immigration Numbers...
It appears I have to keep repeating government statistics that show we have not really dropped our immigration numbers. Like with crime numbers, the left likes to say they are down when they are not, and pointing to the actual stats doesn’t appear to affect them.
So now we have business groups saying we need immigration numbers to go up again, and our left-wing media, which normally hates business groups, will sing their praises and push this issue.
As I explain in my Toronto Sun column and in this video, it’s not a good policy move.
Great post, Brian Lilley.
Not only will the Liberals win five out of six- possibly all six- but the calls for Pierre Poilievre’s head will soon follow. These calls may not commence immediately from inside the Party, but they will be amplified disproportionately by the usual suspects.
Canadians have the Government they so strongly covet; Canada is doomed as an ideal not because of what Canadians want, but because of all they can’t accept.
“As Emma Haynes has argued, apathy toward one’s own country corrodes the very basis for wanting to preserve it, and without a foundation of historical knowledge, there is no ground on which to build the case for making it better.”
Margareta Dovgal
Given the msm dependence on polling data and the complete unreliability of any of it , it should be of no surprise that any news predicting a political outcome of any kind is so completely full of holes that it’s hardly worth listening to, and foolhardy to attach any credibility in this environment . Given the spectacular upset in B.C. and a jarring slap of real change in Quebec mix in a little careless contempt by Carneys snub of Plamondon , and the brazenness of the EU in Poland and a France on fire , the answer really is blowin in the wind .