Brian Lilley

Brian Lilley

Carney is picking an imaginary fight over dairy and supply management...

The Americans don't want to kill supply management, but they do want a fair deal.

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Brian Lilley
Dec 20, 2025
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Is Canada willing to sacrifice a renewed trade deal with the United States, willing to suffer tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos just to keep less than 10,000 dairy farmers happy? My worry is that is the case, and words from Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford would seem to back that up.

As I’ll explain in depth here, in a way most media folks won’t, the Americans aren’t looking to end supply management, they’re also protectionist when it comes to their dairy sector. What they do want is a fair deal, and they don’t think they are getting one.

The United States Trade Representative posted online earlier this week, his opening statement from a closed-door meeting and being upset with Canada on dairy was on there. It’s no wonder, every country we try to have a trade deal with is irritated with Canada over dairy and it hurts other industries but our politicians – all of them – are beholden.

In his presentation to a joint meeting of the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer laid out the problem, as he sees it, with Canadian dairy.

Specifically, he said the United States was concerned with: “Market access for U.S. dairy products that Canada committed to provide under the USMCA and addressing Canada’s exports of certain dairy products.”

The issue of dairy quotas and how they work under CUSMA…

The Canadian exports to the United States that cause tension are primarily around the issue of milk protein and skim milk powder. The American concern around their exports to us is that we aren’t playing fair when it comes to allocating quota.

Under CUSMA, we allow in varying amounts of different American dairy products tariff free and then anything above that is hit with a punishing tariff of between 200% and 298%.

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