Canada has leverage in the Trump trade fight—we're just not using it...

Critical minerals, manufacturing, defence spending, and border security could form the basis of a deal that protects Canadian jobs while giving Washington what it wants.

As I’ve been advocating for Canada to reach a better deal with the United States over the last 18 months, I’ve heard the same thing again and again.

Canada has no leverage; we don’t hold any cards.

It’s a position that I fundamentally disagree with. In fact, I think most Canadians—especially elected leaders—have been looking at the challenges with the Americans the wrong way this whole time.

They take a defensive position and focus on our weaknesses. Or they take a belligerent position, as Justin Trudeau did and as Doug Ford still does.

“Hit them back harder,” they say.

How about we consider what they want, what they are saying, and how we can give them enough of what they want to get enough of what we want?

“You have to negotiate through strength, not weakness, and that’s the only thing that President Trump respects,” Ford said earlier this week.

I agree with Ford that we have to negotiate from a position of strength. Where I disagree with him is that he and his team seem to think that means hitting the Americans with counter-tariffs and threatening to cut off electricity, oil, and potash exports—even though Ontario has no potash or oil.

My thought process is different.

Give them what they want to get what we want…

Look at what the Americans want and figure out what we have that they want. Despite Trump saying he wants nothing from Canada, that’s simply not true.

What are Trump’s main goals in upsetting the apple cart as he tries to completely alter the global trading order? That’s his real goal. It’s not picking a fight with Canada; it’s changing global trade to better favour the United States.

Trump has been open about what he is trying to accomplish with his actions:

• Reduce dependence on China

  Expand U.S. manufacturing

  Protect national security supply chains

Can we help him do that while protecting our own sovereignty and Canadian jobs at the same time?

Absolutely.

Canada could play a key role in all three of those priorities. At the moment, however, we are choosing not to in order to show that we can stand up to the Americans.

Leaning into where we are weak doesn’t help…

Before I explain what we could be doing, let me explain why standing up to the Americans—or trying to break away from them and go it alone—is a bad idea. Simply put, our economy is much more dependent on international trade and exports than the United States.

The U.S. is our largest trading partner, and our exports to its economy are equal to 19.9% of our annual GDP. We are the second-largest trading partner of the United States, behind Mexico, and their exports to us amount to 1.4% of their annual GDP.

Just to be clear, in total dollar terms, we trade in fairly equal amounts. It’s just that we are more trade-dependent and more exposed to the Americans than they are to us.

So standing up to them, going it alone, or trying to break away from them likely hurts us more than it hurts them. We absolutely need to diversify trade, but that is a process that will take decades, and the U.S. will still be our largest customer.

None of that negates the fact that we still have leverage if we play it right.

Moving away from China…

The Americans want to move away from China when it comes to manufacturing and critical minerals, and we can help them. Across the country, there is an abundance of nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, tungsten, rare earth elements, and more that we could supply to the United States.

Doing this would help them pivot away from reliance on China. Yet for years, there have been projects that the Americans have approached us about. They have offered not only to buy the valuable resources beneath our feet but also to help with financing, and we’ve said no.

Under the Trudeau government, mining became a dirty word. So the Americans started looking elsewhere for partners.

On this front—reshoring manufacturing from China—we could assist the Americans while asking for something in return.

Expanding American manufacturing…

The Americans are currently obsessed with bringing manufacturing back to the United States, and we should be obsessed with bringing manufacturing back to Canada. Starting in the 1980s, and then accelerating in the 1990s, we allowed manufacturing to move west to China.

For the Americans to bring back their manufacturing, they need reliable supply chains—see mining above.

This is an area where we could work with them in a way that benefits both countries.

When the Great Lakes Basin was the manufacturing hub of the world, we both benefited from good jobs. While Canada can obviously supply raw materials, we can also supply parts, as we do in the auto sector, creating jobs on both sides of the border.

Protecting national security supply chains…

It seems a bit odd that Canada’s supply of nickel is crucial to the American defence supply chain, yet Canadian steel and aluminum are considered threats to America’s national security. To be fair, the United States has declared that steel and aluminum from any country other than its own constitute a national security threat.

We need to show that we are reliable partners not just on nickel, but also on steel and aluminum, to get those tariffs removed—or at least reduced. We’ve been lax in allowing Chinese products to enter our country and eventually pass into the American economy tariff-free as “Canadian products.”

Finally ending transshipment would be a good first step. Following through on the F-35 purchase instead of constantly playing games with it would be another.

What a final deal would look like…

My view is that we should package everything together when we lay on the table what we are willing to offer in exchange for concessions from the Americans.

What we would offer:

• End the booze ban in provincial liquor stores

• Come to terms on the previously negotiated cheese quota

• Joint North American critical minerals projects

• Enhanced border security co-operation

• Expanded Canadian defence spending

• A commitment to buy U.S. military equipment like the F-35

What the Americans would grant us:

• Elimination or reduction of Section 232 tariffs

• Guaranteed access to the American market

• Preferential treatment under a revised North American framework

• Increased American investment in major Canadian infrastructure projects

• Enhanced border security co-operation, especially related to gun smuggling

To get what we want, we have to offer the Americans the things they want, and we haven’t been doing that.

Mark Carney has been playing political games with the Americans because, even though he knows it hurts the Canadian economy, he also knows it helps him and the Liberals politically.

Some will say you can’t ever get a deal with Trump and that we shouldn’t try. My view is that, for the sake of Canadian workers and Canadian jobs, we need to try.